2009-2025 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast and Market Outlook

June 05, 2009 - Calgary, Alberta

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) today released its 2009 crude oil production forecast and markets and pipelines outlook.

Earlier this year CAPP conducted a survey of producers to determine planned production of oil through 2025. CAPP used this data along with other inputs to prepare its annual forecast, which this year provides both a Growth Case and an Operating & In Construction Case.

"CAPP's Production Forecast indicates that even with delays due to current economic circumstances, oil sands production is expected to grow, although the pace of development has slowed," said Greg Stringham, CAPP's Vice-President, Markets and Oil Sands. "Producers expect continued demand for the security of supply that crude oil from Canada provides to the North American energy market."

The Growth Case represents expected production and assumes the current investment climate will improve over time. The more conservative outlook in the Operating & In Construction Case includes only projects currently in operation or under construction. This case represents a minimum growth outlook. Both cases are presented in the chart below:

Total Canadian Crude Oil Production (million barrels/day) - including oil sands

2008

2015

2020

2025

Growth Case

2.7

3.3

4.0

4.2

Operating & In Construction

2.7

3.0

3.0

2.8

Canadian Oil Sands Production (million barrels/day)

Growth Case

1.2

2.2

2.9

3.3

Operating & In Construction

1.2

1.9

2.0

2.0

Low oil prices, receding short-term demand as a result of the global economic downturn, and constraints in securing investment capital are some of the factors contributing to the reduced pace of development reflected in the Growth Case. In the Operating & In Construction Case, production is forecast to rise to 3.0 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2015 and then decline gradually through 2025, due to a reduction in conventional production. This reduction is moderated by increased light crude oil production from the Bakken field in Saskatchewan over the near-term, and the Hebron heavy oil project in Atlantic Canada, expected to come on stream by 2017.

For the oil sands component of Canada's oil supply, the share of supply coming from in situ projects increases slightly over the forecast period and the proportion of total oil sands that is upgraded remains relatively unchanged over the forecast period.

"In terms of pipeline capacity to meet market expectations, this year's outlook indicates that the significant pipeline development now underway will amply connect forecasted production to long-term demand in the North American energy market," Stringham said.

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