Increasing oil sands and conventional oil production continues to strengthen Canada's position as a preferred supplier to North American and global energy markets.
CAPP's 2013 Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation report forecasts Canadian crude oil production will more than double to 6.7 million barrels per day by 2030 from 3.2 million barrels per day in 2012. This includes oil sands production of 5.2 million barrels per day by 2030, up from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2012.
While the overall trend is similar to last year's forecast, the notable differences include an increase in total production of 500,000 barrels per day by 2030. The increase includes incremental conventional production of 300,000 barrels per day by 2030 and oil sands production of 200,000 barrels per day by 2030. This year's forecast also includes a progressive shift toward more supply from oil sands in situ, or drilling, production.
"Stronger performance for conventional tight oil in Canada and the United States, coupled with oil sands growth from Canada, enables greater North American energy security," said Greg Stringham, CAPP vice-president, markets and oil sands. "It creates further opportunities to replace foreign crude oil imports in both Canada and the United States, and to increase exports to new markets beyond North America."
Oil sands production growth reflects Canada's supply potential and the growing international demand for oil. In 2012, 1.8 million barrels per day were produced, including 800,000 barrels per day from mining operations and one million barrels per day from in situ operations. By 2030, in situ production is forecast at 3.5 million barrels per day and mining production is forecast at 1.7 million barrels per day.
Conventional tight oil production is increasing because new technology allows industry to produce oil from formerly uneconomic resources, reversing a significant declining production trend over the last decade. Production was 1.2 million barrels per day in 2012. It is expected to rise to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2015 and remain at about that level throughout the forecast period.
Supply from the Atlantic Canada offshore is unchanged throughout the forecast period at about 200,000 thousand barrels per day.
Increasing Canadian oil supply is aimed at markets in Eastern Canada, traditional and new markets in the United States (displacing imports from less secure foreign sources) and growing markets in Asia.
"Our industry is focused on energy security and reliability, economic growth and environmental performance," Stringham said. "We want to be the preferred supplier to a diversity of markets - the most reliable, open, transparent, responsible oil producer in the world. This will create jobs throughout Canada and provide secure and reliable supply for our customers."
A broad range of new transportation projects, including both pipeline and rail, are being advanced to move this growing supply to markets. Timely regulatory decisions on these new infrastructure projects will enhance Canada's international competitiveness in attracting the investment needed to support production growth and realize market opportunities, benefitting all Canadians.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents companies, large and small, that explore for, develop and produce natural gas and crude oil throughout Canada. CAPP's member companies produce about 90 per cent of Canada's natural gas and crude oil. CAPP's associate members provide a wide range of services that support the upstream crude oil and natural gas industry. Together CAPP's members and associate members are an important part of a national industry with revenues of about $100 billion a year. CAPP's mission is to enhance the economic sustainability of the Canadian upstream petroleum industry in a safe and environmentally and socially responsible manner, through constructive engagement and communication with governments, the public and stakeholders in the communities in which we operate.