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Economics

BC Oil and Gas Upstream Electrification Scenario Analysis and Executive Briefing

This report is a bottom-up scenario analysis of electrical demand from British Columbia’s Upstream Oil & Gas Industry, prepared by SysEne, an independent consultancy. It provides insights into the scale, feasibility, and system implications of significant future upstream facility electrical demand in Northeastern British Columbia. These SysEne load scenarios for the upstream sector are compared to BC Hydro’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Oil and Gas Load Forecast. An important finding is that there are scenarios in which modelled upstream demand significantly outpaces BC Hydro’s 2025 IRP projection for the full oil and gas value chain. BC Hydro’s projections aggregate the upstream sector, midstream, LNG, and refineries. The study also examines BC Hydro system constraints and the potential for reducing demand growth through self-generation. The study focuses on CAPP-member-operated gas plants, compressor stations, and compressor-dehydrator facilities in the Montney region and examines the potential for electrification of load growth out to 2040.