2008 Canadian Crude Oil Forecast

June 18, 2008 - Calgary, Alberta

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) has released its annual crude oil production, supply, markets and pipelines outlook for 2008.

CAPP's 2008 Canadian crude oil supply outlook has two cases, both looking out to 2020. The Moderate Growth Case represents the "expected" outlook while the more aggressive Pipeline Planning Case has been developed to ensure the industry is planning for adequate pipeline capacity. In the Moderate Growth Case, total Canadian crude oil production (conventional, oil sands and Atlantic offshore) is projected to increase from 2.7 million barrels per day in 2007 to almost 4.5 million b/d in 2020. In the Pipeline Planning Case, production rises to 5.0 million barrels per day.

Oil sands continue to be the main source of Canada's growing oil supply. This year's forecast is similar to last year's but with oil sands growth being extended over slightly longer time frames. This results in a slightly lower production profile in the 2008 forecast than in 2007. "The growth in oil sands remains significant; the potential for oil sands growth is unchanged but this will be accomplished over a longer period" says Greg Stringham, CAPP Vice President, Markets and Fiscal Policy. "Even with growing world demand and higher global prices for oil, oil sands projects take substantial time and effort to address issues such as rising construction costs, labour constraints, public concerns about environmental impacts and completing detailed regulatory processes".

Recent trends indicate the year-over-year decline rate for conventional crude oil production has slowed somewhat due to higher crude oil prices and, in fact, production has increased slightly in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. However, due to the maturity of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, conventional crude oil supply will continue to decline gradually over the forecast period.

In order to accommodate the expected growth in oil sands supply, approximately 1.1 million b/d of pipeline capacity is being added from western Canada through the end of 2010, which should be sufficient until 2013 given the growth in the Pipeline Planning Case. Subsequently, additional pipeline capacity will be required to meet expected oil sands growth. This new pipeline capacity will include expansions into existing markets and extensions into new markets in Eastern Canada, the US and potentially to offshore markets.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) represents 150 companies that explore for, develop and produce natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, oil sands, and elemental sulphur throughout Canada. CAPP member companies produce more than 95 per cent of Canada's natural gas and crude oil.