As a data-driven organization, CAPP believes it is critical to provide the public with credible, clear and the most up to date information available. CAPP’s Data Centre is a central access hub for information and data related to the many facets of Canada’s upstream oil and natural gas sector.
Frequently Used Statistics
CAPP stats handbook
S&P Global: Economic Impact Assessment of Canadian Conventional Oil and Gas
Summary of the Case for Canadian LNG
Canada in a Global Context
- Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been converted into liquid form for ease of storage and transport, as LNG occupies roughly 1/600th the volume of natural gas. Most global LNG is exported from countries with large natural gas reserves (US, Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, etc.) to countries with limited domestic resources (China, Japan, South Korea, India, etc.).
- In 2010, the National Energy Board (now Canada Energy Regulator) started receiving applications for long-term licenses to export Canadian natural gas as LNG to non-US markets. 15 years later, LNG Canada Phase 1 is poised for commercial operation in mid-2025 and will export 1.8 Bcf/d. The start-up will mark Canada’s entrance into the global LNG market, the project is the largest private investment in Canadian history.(1) Over this same period, Canada’s largest trade partner and energy sector competitor, the US, has grown its LNG export capacity from nil to over 14 Bcf/d.
- LNG Canada Phase 1’s start-up will mark Canada’s entrance into the global LNG market. The project is the largest private investment in Canadian history.
Canada’s Competitive Advantage
- Canadian LNG shipped out of coastal BC destined for Asia has significantly shorter shipping distances than American supply from the US Gulf Coast. In addition to shorter relative shipping distances, Canadian LNG has no chokepoints en route to key markets in Asia, where US Gulf Coast supply must transit the Panama Canal.
- Based on estimates from the Canada Energy Regulator, there is 1,105 Tcf(2) of remaining marketable natural gas resources in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Using an average annual WCSB natural gas production of ~18 Bcf/d in 2023, this is equivalent to over 160 years of supply.
- Based on 2024 data from Rystad Energy, Canadian LNG projects are expected to be among the most cost-competitive for delivery to Asia. Compared to competing sources, Canadian LNG benefits from lower liquefaction costs due to relatively lower ambient temperatures in B.C. and lower shipping costs due to shorter distances.
- A 2020 study from the Conference Board of Canada found that an investment scenario in which Canadian LNG export capacity increased to 56 Mtpa (7.4 Bcf/d) would yield a $11 billion increase in GDP per year, ~100,000 more jobs, and over $2 billion per year of additional taxes and royalties.
Summary of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in Canada
Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) is critical to Canada’s oil and gas industry
- CCUS is vital for maintaining the global competitiveness of Canada’s oil and gas industry.
Canada is a global leader in CCUS
- Canadian projects represent 11.5% of planned global CCUS storage capacity.
- Major contributors to CCUS in Canada include oil refining and chemical production sectors.
Technological advancements are expanding opportunities to capture CO2 across industries
- Innovations include post-combustion, pre-combustion, direct air capture, and bioenergy CCS expand CO2 capture opportunities.
Canada has a significant footprint of operational and planned CCUS projects
- There is established infrastructure including the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line (ACTL).
- There are successful projects operating in both Alberta and Saskatchewan.
CCUS in Western Canada has world-leading growth potential
- Total sequestration capacity is growing significantly through planned projects: Ambition to scale CCUS capacity fivefold by 2030.
- Abundant geological storage and world-class technical expertise are driving expansion.
Summary of Building Canada’s Future
- The United States buys about 95% of Canada’s exported oil and 99% of our exported natural gas.
- The main reason for this overreliance on a single customer is that Canada doesn’t have the infrastructure in place to directly access other global markets. Rather, we’ve seen hundreds of billions of dollars in export infrastructure projects get cancelled over the last decade.
- Canada will likely continue to sell the majority or our oil and natural gas to the United States for decades to come because it is the largest energy market in the world and the countries are physically connected by borders and shared infrastructure.
- However, recent trade tensions have awakened many Canadians to the fact we cannot take this relationship for granted, and we are not energy secure. Canada’s inability to access global markets or even provide citizens across the country with our own energy has become a threat to our very sovereignty.
- Canada has opportunities to build a more resilient and prosperous economy. Major, economy-driving projects that can secure our energy future are waiting to be built. To act on these opportunities, we need a significant reset across Canada in terms of fiscal, tax, infrastructure, permitting, and energy and environmental policy.
Summary of Canadian Imports of US Crude Natural Gas and Refined Products
- Parts of Canada depend on the US for crude oil, natural gas, and refined products. This reliance includes US imports and Canadian-produced oil and gas that transit through the US on their way to Ontario and Quebec. This dependence poses an energy security risk for all regions of Canada. If the US cut off the delivery of these crucial commodities, Canada would face energy shortages and high prices.
- Ontario and Quebec are particularly vulnerable. About half of the natural gas these provinces consume is imported from the US. Additionally, Ontario depends entirely on crude oil delivered via the United States, with no immediate alternatives available. Quebec also relies on crude oil transiting the United States for about 60% of its refinery consumption. While there are options to deliver more Canadian natural gas via the TransCanada (TC) Canadian Mainline, the pipeline would likely require capital investment to increase its flow rate materially. To reduce Ontario’s dependency on US-transited oil, Line 9 could be reversed (once again) to deliver offshore oil into Ontario from Montreal, but this cannot be done in the short term.
- Alberta imports over 200,000 barrels per day of light condensate from the United States to blend with heavy bitumen for transportation. A curtailment of these imports could increase heavy oil producers’ costs and cause operational issues that constrain production.
- British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario also depend on refined product imports.
Summary of Canadian Exports of Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude Oil Export Highlights
- After meeting domestic refining needs in Western Canada and Ontario, almost all Canadian crude oil production is exported to the US. Historically, limited access to tidewater ports, specifically in Western Canada, has prevented oil from being sold abroad. For context, Canada exported roughly 80% of its total oil supply to the US in 2024.
- Canada is the US’ largest foreign crude oil supplier, making up ~60% of all US imports in 2024, equating to roughly 9X the next biggest supplier, Mexico. Canada’s dominant position is due to our trade history, geographic proximity, integrated pipeline infrastructure, and compatible heavy crude oil.
- A lack of new pipeline takeaway capacity in recent years has ultimately limited the export potential for Canadian crude oil. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) has increased Canadian oil exports to the US West Coast. TMEP will also present an opportunity to ship oil to Japan, India, and SE Asia.
Natural Gas Export Highlights
- The North American shale revolution has altered the natural gas supply/demand dynamic, turning Canada’s sole export market, the US, into its main competitor. In 2024, Canada exported over 45% of its natural gas supply to the US. From 2010 to 2021, natural gas exports to the US decreased by roughly 15% due to increased natural gas production in the northeast US, its main competitor.
- In Canada, tight gas plays in the Montney, Deep Basin, Duvernay, and other northwest Alberta and northeast BC areas offer significant development potential. Like oil, the growth of gas exports has been limited by pipeline constraints and the inability to tap into global markets via LNG.
- Compared to the other top natural gas-producing countries, Canada has significantly lagged in the growth of its natural gas exports. Beginning in 2025, LNG exports from Canada’s West Coast, via LNG Canada, will facilitate expansion into global markets.
Summary of Canadian Oil and Gas Production
Canada is a significant supplier of oil and gas. Canada is the fourth-largest producer of oil in the world and the fifth-largest producer of natural gas.
Natural Gas Highlights
- Competition from US shale gas starting in 2008 led to a decline in Canadian production. In 2012-13, the trend reversed with the discovery of shale gas in BC and Alberta. Canadian production has now recovered to a record high of 18.4 Bcf/d (YTD average in 2024).
- Shale gas has also shifted the dominant location for natural gas production; from southern Alberta to northeast BC and northern Alberta.
Crude Oil Highlights
- Canadian oil production includes oil sands at 3.3 MMB/d (58%), conventional at 1.5 MMB/d (26%), east coast offshore at 0.2 MMB/d (4%) and NGLs at 0.7 MMB/d (12%).
- Since 2005, oil sands production has tripled, but after 2018, production growth has moderated. Production has ranged between 3.1 and 3.2 MMB/d in the last few years (2021, 2022, and 2023).
- Condensate and pentanes plus production has doubled since 2014 and averaged just over 500,000 B/d YTD in 2024. The growth of light liquids is a byproduct of the prolific shale gas and oil wells.
Summary of the Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas
- Conditions for the Canadian upstream oil and gas industry have been challenging since the 2014/2015 downturn; however, the situation has drastically improved post-COVID with the commodity price recovery and improved pipeline takeaway capacity, which have resulted in record-high revenue levels in 2022 and 2023.
- Annual revenue for 2025 is currently estimated lower at $172.4 billion (relative to 2024) due to weaker oil and gas prices. CAPEX spending is also expected to be slightly lower compared to 2024, with the equivalent of 60% of industry revenue, or $104.4 billion, estimated to be spent on operating expenditures (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX) combined, mostly spent in Canada.
- The industry’s improved health has transferred to the bottom line of provincial governments. The industry paid a record $33.7 billion in oil and gas royalties to provincial governments in 2022. In 2024 and 2025, over $20 billion is expected in each year.
- Over the past few years, cost inflation has erased some of the industry’s previous gains in reducing operating costs. Managing these costs continues to be an area of focus.
- The economic impact of Canada’s upstream oil and gas sector is significant. In 2024, the sector comprised over 3% of Canada’s total GDP. The Oil and Gas Extraction sub-industry is the largest goods-producing industry in Canada. It is 31% bigger than the next largest sub-industry—Engineering and Other Construction Activities—and 37% bigger than the Residential Building Construction industry.
- Based on direct and indirect jobs, the oil and gas sector employs about 450,000 people in Canada. When induced jobs are also considered, the oil and gas sector employs closer to 900,000 people in Canada. These are well-paying jobs; the average direct oil and gas worker’s total compensation is roughly 2X higher than the Canadian average for goods-producing industries.
Summary of Canadian Oil and Gas Export Infrastructure
Canada is both a significant consumer and supplier of energy. Substantial energy infrastructure has been developed over decades to gather, process, and ship energy to domestic and export markets.
Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Infrastructure Highlights
- There are more than 840,000 km of transmission, gathering, and distribution pipelines in Canada. The pipeline network delivers natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil for domestic use and export.
- Canada has more than doubled its pipeline and rail flows out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to nearly 5.0 MMB/d (from ~2 MMB/d) since 2007 to accommodate oil sands growth, however, growth has ultimately been constrained due to limited egress capacity, including the cancellation of three major proposed pipeline projects.
- The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP), now complete, has added ~590 MB/d of egress capacity, marking a major milestone for Canadian oil producers and providing tidewater access to new markets.
Natural Gas Infrastructure Highlights
- A large network of pipelines moves natural gas from producing regions in Western Canada to Eastern Canada and the US, where Canada represents the largest foreign supplier.
- Starting in 2016/2017, constraints in regional gathering systems and export lines have limited growth and depressed prices, but recent capacity expansions have helped mitigate these issues. Canadian natural gas started to be exported from US LNG terminals in 2023. The first Canadian LNG export facilities are under construction and will provide greater access to higher-priced international markets.
Summary of Crude Oil Market Fundamentals
Global Crude Oil and Liquids Supply
- Based on the latest short-term forecast (at the time of this publication) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude oil and liquids supply is expected to average 104.1 MMB/d in 2025, up 1.3 MMB/d (+1.3%) from 2024. For 2026, the EIA is calling for global crude oil and liquids supply of 105.4 MMB/d, representing a 1.3 MMB/d increase relative to its 2025 forecast. Of note, a portion of the supply increase is driven by OPEC+, who announced in April 2025 an acceleration of its planned return of 2.2 MMB/d of voluntary supply cuts.(
Global Crude Oil and Liquids Demand
- Based on the average of the April 2025 short-term outlooks from the EIA and OPEC, global crude oil and liquids demand is expected to average 104.6 MMB/d in 2025, up 1.3 MMB/d Y/Y (+1.2%).
Global Crude Oil and Liquids Supply/Demand Balance
- Based on the April 2025 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, global oil inventories are expected to increase in Q2/2025 and into 2026. The EIA has lowered its demand outlook for 2025 and 2026 due to the effect of new or additional tariffs on global economic activity while noting that significant uncertainty remains. Simultaneously, the EIA has increased its expectations for OPEC+ production growth to reflect the announcement of OPEC+’s plan to accelerate 2.2 MMB/d of voluntary supply cuts.
- In 2024, price volatility amplified amidst increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the threat of slowing demand growth. Crude oil prices weakened in 2025, largely driven by concerns of slowing demand driven by an escalating global trade war. Based on the futures market, the average price for WTI in 2025 is roughly US$64/B.
WCSB Supply and Egress
- The amount of egress capacity out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) influences Canadian crude oil prices. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) reached commercial operation in May 2024, adding 590 MB/d of pipeline export capacity, which has had a positive impact on Canadian crude oil differentials.
Summary of Canadian Consumption of Domestically Produced Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Canada consumes a mix of domestic production and imports for both crude oil and natural gas, with the US being the dominant foreign supplier. Canada and the US are highly integrated with supply delivered through a complex pipeline network that intertwines both countries.
Crude Oil Consumption Highlights
- In 2024, approximately 1.29 MMB/d of Canadian refinery crude oil receipts were domestically sourced, equating to 74% of total refinery receipts.
- Canada’s reliance on crude oil imports to meet refinery needs has declined by roughly 50% to ~0.46 MMB/d in 2024 since peaking at ~0.93 MMB/d in 2004. This is primarily a function of the closures of import-dependent refineries in Eastern Canada, but also due to pipeline changes that have improved connectivity to domestic sources.
- Canada’s refining complex is predominantly designed to process lighter-grade crude oils. Consequently, Canada’s heavy oil sands barrels are mostly exported to complex coking refineries in the US.
Natural Gas Consumption Highlights
- According to the latest Statistics Canada data, in 2023, Canadian natural gas demand was ~13 Bcf/d. Net of natural gas imports, the implied consumption of domestically produced natural gas was 10.2 Bcf/d or ~78% of total demand.
- The industrial sector is Canada’s largest natural gas consumer, accounting for ~7 Bcf/d or 53% of total demand in 2023.
- Provinces in Western Canada meet demand needs with domestic production. However, changes in North American supply/demand dynamics have led to an increased reliance on US natural gas imports for Eastern Canada and a loss in market share for Canadian gas producers in this region.