As a data-driven organization, CAPP believes it is critical to provide the public with credible, clear and the most up to date information available. CAPP’s Data Centre is a central access hub for information and data related to the many facets of Canada’s upstream oil and natural gas sector.
S&P Global: Economic Impact Assessment of Canadian Conventional Oil and Gas
Canadian Oil and Gas Production
Canada is a significant supplier of oil and gas. Canada is the fourth-largest producer of oil in the world and the fifth-largest producer of natural gas.
Natural Gas Highlights
- Competition from US shale gas starting in 2008 led to a decline in Canadian production. In 2012-13, the trend reversed with the discovery of shale gas in BC and Alberta. Canadian production has now recovered to a record high of 18.4 Bcf/d (YTD average in 2024).
- Shale gas has also shifted the dominant location for natural gas production; from southern Alberta to northeast BC and northern Alberta.
Crude Oil Highlights
- Canadian oil production includes oil sands at 3.3 MMB/d (57%), conventional at 1.6 MMB/d (28%), east coast offshore at 0.2 MMB/d (3%) and NGLs at 0.7 MMB/d (12%).
- Since 2005, oil sands production has tripled, but after 2018, production growth has moderated. Production has ranged between 3.1 and 3.2 MMB/d in the last few years (2021, 2022, and 2023).
- Condensate and pentanes plus production has doubled since 2014 and averaged just over 500,000 B/d YTD in 2024. The growth of light liquids is a byproduct of the prolific shale gas and oil wells.
The Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas
- Conditions for the Canadian upstream oil and gas industry have been challenging since the 2014/2015 downturn; however, the situation has drastically improved post-COVID with the commodity price recovery and improved pipeline takeaway capacity, which have resulted in record-high revenue levels in 2022 and 2023.
- Annual revenue for 2024 is now estimated lower at $178 billion due to weaker oil and gas prices. CAPEX spending should be more resilient and similar to 2023, with the equivalent of 62% of industry revenue, or $111 billion, estimated to be spent on operating expenditures (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX) combined; this is mostly spent in Canada.
- The industry’s improved health has transferred to the bottom line of provincial governments. The industry paid a record $34 billion in oil and gas royalties to provincial governments in 2022. In 2023 and 2024, over $20 billion is expected in each year.
- Over the past few years, cost inflation has erased some of the industry’s previous gains in reducing operating costs. Managing these costs continues to be an area of focus.
- The economic impact of Canada’s upstream oil and gas sector is significant. In 2023, the sector comprised over 3% of Canada’s total GDP. The Oil and Gas Extraction sub-industry is the largest goods-producing industry in Canada. It is 20% bigger than the next largest sub-industry—Engineering and Other Construction Activities—and 30% bigger than the Residential Building Construction industry.
- When direct, indirect, and induced jobs are considered, the oil and gas sector employs about 900,000 people in Canada. These are well-paying jobs; the average direct oil and gas worker’s total compensation is roughly 2X higher than the Canadian average for goods-producing industries.
Canadian Oil and Gas Export Infrastructure
Canada is both a significant consumer and supplier of energy. Substantial energy infrastructure has been developed over decades to gather, process, and ship energy to domestic and export markets.
Oil and Natural Gas Liquids Infrastructure Highlights
- There are more than 840,000 km of transmission, gathering, and distribution pipelines in Canada. The pipeline network delivers natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil for domestic use and export.
- Canada has more than doubled its pipeline and rail flows out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to over 4.5 MMB/d (from ~2 MMB/d) since 2007 to accommodate oil sands growth, however, growth has ultimately been constrained due to limited egress capacity, including the cancellation of three major proposed pipeline projects.
- The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP), now complete, has added ~590 MB/d of egress capacity, marking a major milestone for Canadian oil producers and providing tidewater access to new markets.
Natural Gas Infrastructure Highlights
- A large network of pipelines moves natural gas from producing regions in Western Canada to Eastern Canada and the United States, where Canada represents the largest foreign supplier.
- Starting in 2016/2017, constraints in regional gathering systems and export lines have limited growth and depressed prices, but recent capacity expansions have helped mitigate these issues. Canadian gas started to be exported from US LNG terminals in 2023. The first Canadian LNG export projects are under construction and will provide greater access to higher-priced international markets.
Crude Oil Market Fundamentals
Global Crude Oil and Liquids Supply
- Based on the latest short-term forecasts (at the time of this publication) from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global crude oil and liquids supply is expected to average 102.7 MMB/d and 104.7 MMB/d in 2024 and 2025, respectively. OPEC is expected to account for roughly 30% of the total supply in 2024, compared to about 70% for non-OPEC countries. OPEC’s voluntary supply cuts remain critical to maintaining market balance into 2024. In June 2024, OPEC+ (incl. Russia) unveiled a roadmap for unwinding its existing 2.2 MMB/d of voluntary supply cuts from Q4/2024 to Q3/2025, subject to market conditions.
Global Crude Oil and Liquids Demand
- Global crude oil and liquids demand is expected to average 103.0 MMB/d and 104.4 MMB/d in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Average global demand growth, as per the IEA, is expected to slow in 2024 to roughly 1 MMB/d year-over-year, compared to 2023, which was up 2.1 MMB/d relative to 2022.
Global Crude Oil and Liquids Supply/Demand Balance
- Based on the latest monthly IEA Oil Market Report (Jul 2024), a tighter supply/demand is now expected through 2024 as a result of heightened geopolitical tensions abroad and sustained voluntary supply cuts from OPEC+. Most supply growth is expected to be driven by non-OPEC countries, namely the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.
- Crude oil prices (WTI) have been rangebound in 2024, trading between roughly US$75-85/B, peaking at~US$87/B in April driven by a tightening supply/demand outlook. Looking ahead, based on the futures market, the average price for WTI in 2024 (Aug –Dec) and 2025 is US$79.80/B and US$75.56/B, respectively.
WCSB Supply and Egress
- The amount of egress capacity out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) influences Canadian crude oil prices. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) reached commercial operation in May 2024, adding 590 MB/d of pipeline export capacity, which will have a positive impact on Canadian crude oil differentials.
Canadian Consumption of Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Canada consumes a mix of domestic production and imports for both crude oil and natural gas, with the United States being the dominant foreign supplier. Canada and the United States are highly integrated with supply delivered through a complex pipeline network that intertwines both countries.
Crude Oil Consumption Highlights
- In 2023, approximately 1.25 MMB/d of Canadian refinery crude oil receipts were domestically sourced, equating to 73% of total refinery receipts.
- Canada’s reliance on crude oil imports to meet refinery needs has declined by roughly 50% to ~0.46 MMB/d in 2023 since peaking at ~0.93 MMB/d in 2004. This is primarily a function of the closures of import-dependent refineries in Eastern Canada, but also due to pipeline changes that have improved connectivity to domestic sources.
- Canada’s refining complex is predominantly designed to process lighter-grade crude oils. Consequently, Canada’s heavy oil sands barrels are mostly exported to complex coking refineries in the United States.
Natural Gas Consumption Highlights
- According to the latest Statistics Canada data, in 2022, Canadian natural gas demand was 12.9 Bcf/d. Net of natural gas imports, the implied consumption of domestically produced natural gas was 9.8 Bcf/d or ~76% of total demand.
- The industrial sector is Canada’s largest natural gas consumer, accounting for ~7 Bcf/d or 54% of total demand in 2022.
- Provinces in Western Canada meet demand needs with domestic production. However, changes in North American supply/demand dynamics have led to an increased reliance on US natural gas imports for Eastern Canada and a loss in market share for Canadian gas producers in this region.