Due to the rapidly changing capital budgets of Canadian oil producers, the resource production associated with that investment, and the current market and economic uncertainties the CAPP Crude Oil Forecast has been deferred. CAPP’s 2019 Crude Oil Forecast remains the most recent information on expected Canadian oil production.
Crude Oil Forecast
Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation
CAPP’s annual Crude Oil Forecast, Markets and Transportation report provides a long-term outlook for Canadian crude oil production. The 2019 edition of the report projects serious constraints over the forecast period from 2019 to 2035.
This constrained forecast is due to current cumulative regulatory and policy challenges and insufficient market access, which in turn are having and will continue to have negative impacts throughout Canada’s economy – from diminishing investment to loss of employment and reduced government tax and royalty revenues.
Global Energy Demand
The Canadian situation is in sharp contrast to growing energy demand and production elsewhere. By 2040, global oil demand is anticipated to increase to 106.3 million barrels per day (b/d). Across the Asia Pacific region, oil consumption and energy demand are growing significantly, and U.S. energy demand is robust.
Canada has an opportunity to gain global market share, replacing less sustainably produced oil sources. At the same time, a healthy Canadian industry with access to global markets ensures ongoing prosperity and economic benefits across the country.
The report projects a constrained outlook for Canadian oil production from 2019 to 2035. Although production will increase by 1.27 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2035, that growth rate is about 6% less than CAPP’s 2018 forecast.
Total annual production is expected to increase by an average of 3% until 2021, then slow to an average growth rate of 1% annually. Oil sands production is expected to reach 4.25 million b/d by 2035 from 2.9 million b/d in 2018 – a growth rate decline of 12% from last year’s forecast.
2019 Production and Supply Data
Download Excel spreadsheets of the production and supply data from the Crude Oil Forecast.